Market Sizing
New business and client engagements where creative vision, strategy alignment, and multi-stakeholder approval determine outcomes.
Inside this journey
-
Pre-Discovery
Align stakeholders, decision criteria, timeline, and risk tolerances before sizing work.
-
Stakeholder Alignment
Confirm decision roles, board thresholds, timeline, and what success looks like for the TAM deliverable.
Alignment Questions
Starting Point: Tell Us Who You Are and What’s Urgent
- Who are you, your role, and the single most important outcome you're trying to achieve with this TAM work?
- Which best describes the trigger for this request—board presentation, PE diligence, product launch, geographic expansion, or other?
- What is the timeline we must meet for a board-ready deliverable (date or timeframe)?
- Which of the following best describes the organization and product involved (pick all that apply)?
- Who on your team will be our primary day-to-day contact for decisions, data access, and interview coordination? Name and role please.
What Would Make Your Board Say ‘No’?
- If this TAM landed on the board table tomorrow, what single assumption would most likely trigger rejection or intense pushback?
- Do any board members or investors have explicit thresholds or red lines (e.g., required growth rate, addressable market size, margin assumptions)? If so, please list them.
- How much precision versus defensibility matters more—do you need narrow point estimates or transparent ranges and auditable assumptions?
- Have you previously presented a TAM to this same group? If yes, what critique or questions came up and how did it affect decisions?
Who Really Holds the Keys (And How Do They Decide)?
- Who are the decision-makers and influencers for approving this TAM (roles/titles), and who ultimately signs off on go/no-go decisions?
- What voting or approval thresholds exist (e.g., simple majority, CEO sign-off, investment committee unanimous)?
- Which internal teams will be consulted or need to validate inputs (select all that apply)?
- How do these stakeholders usually evaluate credibility—what evidence convinces them (customer interviews, audited financials, third‑party data, board-ready memo)?
If We Delivered Perfection, What Would the Board See?
- Describe the deliverable that would feel 'board-ready'—what must it include to remove doubt?
- Which outputs matter most to you (choose up to three): a clear bottom-up build, top-down triangulation, interview transcripts, sensitivity analysis, or a crisp one-page memo?
- What acceptance criteria would you use to sign off—specific metrics or softer signals (e.g., plausibility, auditability, stakeholder buy-in)? Please list the top 3.
- Would you require a licensing or reuse agreement for the model and sources, and if so, which terms are acceptable to you?
Where Might We Be Tending to Overclaim?
- If you were playing devil’s advocate, which assumptions in your current thinking push the TAM higher than reality?
- Which geographies or segments are sometimes included in past estimates that you suspect are actually out-of-scope for this team?
- Are there buyer segments or channels we should explicitly exclude (e.g., enterprise accounts with exclusive contracts, self-serve SMBs, government buyers)? Please explain.
- How should we treat aspirational responses in surveys versus observed purchase behavior—what level of discounting would you accept if customers say 'we would buy' but have no purchase history?
Data Reality Check: What Can We Actually Access?
- Which internal data sources can you grant us access to (CRM, win/loss, usage metrics, pricing history, customer lists)? Select all that apply and note access constraints.
- What external sources do you already trust or want us to use (industry databases, trade associations, government stats, competitor filings)? List any preferred vendors.
- Will you provide introductions to buyers, channel partners, or customers for primary interviews? If yes, approximately how many can you reasonably make available?
- Are there legal, compliance, or NDAs that restrict whom we can interview or which data we can publish?
- How comfortable are you with us conducting cold outreach to target buyers and channel partners where introductions are not available?
Methodology and Scope: How Granular Do You Need This To Be?
- What segmentation do you require—verticals, buyer size, deployment model, geography—and which of these are non‑negotiable?
- Is a bottom-up model built from buyer-level economics required, or is a top-down triangulation sufficient for your stakeholders?
- What minimum sample size for buyer interviews would make this defensible to your board/investors (we typically target 30+ for robust bottom-up)?
- Which deliverables are must-haves versus nice-to-haves (choose all must-haves)?
Timeline, Reviews, and Sign-off Rhythm
- If we propose a draft model and memo, who needs to review and how many review cycles are realistic before final sign-off?
- What are the non-negotiable dates (board meeting, investment committee, data room deadline) that drive our schedule?
- How would you prefer to receive progress—weekly checkpoints, milestone reviews, or asynchronous updates in a shared workspace?
- Who is authorized to accept scope changes or trade-offs if data gaps force adjustments to depth or timeline?
The Emotional Truth: What’s Keeping You Up At Night?
- When you think about presenting this TAM, what feeling comes up first—confidence, anxiety, indifference, skepticism, or something else?
- What past experience (a failed model, a board pushback, an over-optimistic vendor) influences how cautious you are now?
- If the TAM came back smaller than you hoped, what would be the practical implications for your plan (delay funding, narrow target, change product strategy)?
- What level of narrative versus numbers will persuade your stakeholders—are they moved more by crisp storylines or by detailed, auditable models?
- Who on the team would feel most relieved if this work succeeds—and who would remain skeptical? Name roles and why.
Deciding To Move Forward: Trade-offs and First Steps
- If we had to make one trade-off to meet the earliest possible deadline, which would you prefer: reduce segmentation granularity, accept fewer interviews, or cut back on secondary source breadth?
- What budget or resourcing constraints should we be aware of that might limit primary research or data purchases?
- Who needs to be in the initial alignment meeting to commit to interviews, data access, and timeline?
- If we present a recommended plan (scope, timeline, minimum interviews, and deliverables) in a 30-minute kickoff, are you ready to commit to next steps at that meeting?
- What would be the single best thing we could do in the first two weeks to build confidence across stakeholders?
-
Decision Criteria & Constraints
Document target segments, geographies, addressable definitions, and disallowed assumptions to prevent inflated TAMs.
Constraints & Criteria
Quick Grounding — Why Now?
- Tell me briefly what triggered this TAM request right now (board ask, M&A, expansion, investor diligence, other).
- What decision or document does this TAM need to support (e.g., slide, investment memo, deal model)?
- Who is the primary decision-maker or audience for the numbers we produce?
- How concerned are you that the TAM will be challenged for being overly optimistic or insufficiently auditable?
- If you could get one thing from this work that would immediately reduce your stress about the board/investor review, what would that be?
Who Do You Really Mean When You Say “Addressable”?
- When you say ‘addressable market,’ who exactly are we counting — the economic buyer, the end user, channel partners, or something else?
- Which customer segments must be included because they are essential to your go-to-market or investment thesis?
- Which buyer characteristics matter most when deciding if a customer is in-scope (e.g., budget owner, tech stack, procurement cycle, regulatory requirement)?
- Give one concrete example of a company or account that you absolutely want included, and one you think should definitely be excluded — why for each?
- How much overlap between product use-cases and segments are you willing to accept in the TAM (i.e., do we deduplicate aggressively or allow some multi-use counting)?
Where Will You Compete — and Where Won’t You?
- If we had to be blunt: are there specific countries, regions, or markets you want us to exclude regardless of theoretical demand?
- What practical constraints should rule a geography out (regulation, language, distribution, currency, sanctions)?
- Which go-to-market routes must be modeled separately because they change addressability materially (direct sales, channel, online self-serve, OEM)?
- How do you want us to treat multi-national customers — count by HQ country, by billing/legal entity, or by deployment footprint?
- Are there market-entry assumptions we should assume (e.g., instant channel access, multi-year ramp, pilot-only penetration)? If yes, describe the realistic ramp or access limits.
What Would the Board Call Out as a Deal-Breaker?
- If the board were to press you on one number or assumption, which would you expect them to focus on (growth rate, market size, adoption rate, pricing, competitor share)?
- What minimum growth or market metrics does the leadership team need to see for this investment to proceed (e.g., >15% CAGR, $X TAM)?
- How much sensitivity or range does the board expect — a single point estimate, low/likely/high, or probabilistic intervals?
- What level of audit trail would satisfy scrutiny — full interview transcripts and source docs, redacted summaries, or a citation list?
- Have you seen previous TAMs rejected or questioned? Tell us one example of feedback you received and how it felt.
Assumptions We Mustn’t Make — Guardrails Against Inflated TAMs
- Which common assumptions would you like us to explicitly ban from the model (select all that apply or add your own)?
- Are there specific internal narratives or commercial objectives we should avoid reflecting in assumptions (e.g., optimistic pricing, cross-sell rates)?
- How should we treat pricing and willingness-to-pay — use list prices, realized invoice prices, or estimated blended ARR?
- If a tempting but unsupported assumption appears (e.g., high conversion from pilot), who on your team should approve its inclusion?
- Describe one assumption you’ve seen in past analyses that you absolutely do not want repeated here, and why it misled decision-makers.
How Much Evidence Feels Convincing — Data, Interviews & Granularity
- What minimum primary research sample size would you consider defensible for the bottom-up model?
- Which secondary sources do you trust most for triangulation (select all that apply)?
- How granular must segment definitions be (industry verticals, use-case, buyer persona, revenue bands, NAICS/ISIC codes)?
- Which KPI or data point would you consider the single most persuasive piece of primary evidence (e.g., % of buyers with budget, average spend per year, contract length)?
- Are there specific databases or lists you already own (customers, MQLs, partner lists) that we should use for sampling?
Operational Constraints — Timing, Budget, and Legal Limits
- What is the hard deadline for deliverables (board date, investment committee, LOI timeline)?
- Do you have budget constraints or expectations for the scope of research we should match?
- Are there confidentiality or NDAs limiting which interviewees we can contact or which sources we can publish?
- Will you require licensing or reuse limits on the deliverables (e.g., internal use only, investor distribution allowed)?
- Who on your team will be the day-to-day point of contact for scheduling interviews and approving assumptions?
What Evidence Will Make You Believe the Model?
- If you had to pick three deliverables that would make the TAM defensible to investors, what would they be (e.g., bottom-up build, interview transcripts, sensitivity analysis)?
- How transparent do we need to be about interview recruitment and incentives to satisfy reviewers?
- Would having anonymized customer quotes tied to specific assumptions increase your confidence? If so, how many quotes feel persuasive?
- Is there an external party (auditor, internal finance, external advisor) who will review our methods — and if so, who are they?
- What's the one ‘show-stopper’ piece of evidence—if we can’t provide it, the board will likely reject the TAM?
Deciding on Scope — What We Should Model and What We Should Skip
- Which model outputs do you need exactly (TAM / SAM / SOM, revenue curves, adoption curves, unit economics)?
- Do you require separate models by segment (industry, company size, buyer persona) or a single consolidated view?
- Are there low-priority segments or data slices you want us to exclude to save time or cost?
- For each required deliverable, what level of polish is expected (raw model, executive-ready slides, board memo)?
- If time becomes constrained, which output would you prioritize (model accuracy, audit trail, or persuasive storytelling)?
Final Approvals, Decision Rights & Next Steps
- Who will have final sign-off on scope, assumptions, and the deliverable (name and role)?
- What is your preferred cadence for check-ins and draft reviews during the work (weekly, twice-weekly, milestone checkpoints)?
- At the end of this conversation, what would you like our immediate next step to be (proposal with options, scoped SOW, kickoff meeting)?
- Who else should we involve on your side to avoid rework (finance, legal, product, channel leads)?
- One last practical question: what would make you feel this discovery conversation was a valuable use of your time?
-
-
Outcome Discovery
Define measurable success signals, board-ready outputs, and acceptance criteria for methodology and sensitivity ranges.
Discovery Questions
Where this needs to land (No pressure, but it's the board)
- Which single outcome best captures why you need a TAM right now?
- Who will be the primary decision‑maker reviewing the final materials (name/role)?
- What deadline are we working toward for a board-ready deliverable?
- If the board accepts the TAM, what will they do differently the next quarter?
- Which deliverable formats do you expect to receive at sign-off?
If the board pushes back, what's the hardest question we should expect?
- When reviewers push back on past market-sizing work, which line of attack tends to be most damaging?
- Tell us about a time a TAM didn't survive scrutiny—what specific assumption failed and what was the consequence?
- Which part of our methodology would you expect skeptics to hammer first?
- What evidence or formatting tends to defuse skepticism quickly in your experience?
- How important is an auditable trail (raw data + build steps) versus a concise board narrative?
What would make you sleep at night? Evidence & the audit trail
- If you had to pick one single piece of evidence that would most increase your confidence in the TAM, what would it be?
- How many primary buyer interviews would you consider minimally credible for a bottom‑up build in this vertical?
- Which supporting artifacts must be included in the appendix for your reviewers to feel comfortable?
- Do you require anonymized transcripts or verbatim quotes cited by persona?
- What level of source traceability is non‑negotiable (e.g., every input linked, or only key pivots)?
What counts as 'defensible' in your world?
- If an investor asks 'Is this defensible?', what short answer should we be able to give in one sentence?
- Which methodological approach will your reviewers consider most credible?
- How transparent must we be about judgment calls and proxy assumptions?
- Are there specific third‑party sources or industry databases your team or investors expect us to consult?
- How should we present assumptions so they feel rigorous rather than convenient (format preference)?
How wrong can we be and still win? (Sensitivity and tolerance)
- What percent range around the headline TAM would be considered acceptable by your board/investors?
- Which assumptions are deal‑sensitive—if those are off, the thesis collapses?
- Do you prefer discrete scenarios (base / conservative / aggressive) or continuous sensitivity ranges (tornado table / sliders)?
- If we produce a 3-scenario view, what would you name acceptable anchors for each scenario (short labels)?
- How should we surface model fragility—callouts in slides, a separate 'risks' tab in the model, or both?
Who needs to sign off and how do they prefer the story?
- List the stakeholders who must formally accept the deliverable and their roles (e.g., Head of Strategy, CFO, Board Chair).
- Which stakeholder is most likely to demand technical detail rather than narrative?
- How do your reviewers prefer to consume evidence—slides, model walkthrough, or a short memo followed by a Q&A?
- What is the desired cadence for check-ins and milestone approvals during the engagement?
- If we reach a point of disagreement on methodology, who has final say and what process should we follow to escalate?
Agreement on deliverables & clear acceptance criteria
- Before we build, which of these deliverables must be in the final package for you to sign off?
- What explicit acceptance tests should the final deliverable pass (e.g., '30 buyer interviews completed', 'all key assumptions sourced')?
- Do you require a formal mutual-commit step where scope, licensing, and sign-off criteria are locked prior to final delivery?
- How many rounds of revisions do you expect to include in the scope before additional fees apply?
- What timing for final sign-off would feel reasonable once we submit the board-ready materials?
Quick reality check: data gaps, trade-offs, and final blockers
- Which data gaps would you rather accept than delay delivery (e.g., fewer interviews, coarser segmentation, proxy data)?
- If trade-offs are required, rank the priorities from most to least important: precision, speed, cost, breadth of coverage.
- Are there legal, regulatory, or confidentiality constraints we should anticipate when collecting primary data?
- What would be an acceptable contingency if a critical secondary source proves unavailable?
- Finally, what single sentence would you want the opening of the board memo to say about the TAM conclusion?
-
Solution Experience
Run a context-driven walkthrough showing how the model maps buyer behavior to TAM and the evidence that makes it auditable.
Experience Meetings
- Solution Experience — Prep & Alignment
- Evidence & Assumptions Mapping
- Live Model Walkthrough — Buyer Behavior → TAM (Proof Session)
- Audit Readiness, Board Narrative & Executive Validation
- Prepare the source appendix with redacted transcripts and a source index for investor-level review.
- Accepted audit trail format and owner for maintaining it.
- Annotate model template cells with evidence links and distribute to participants.
- Schedule and assign owners for the prioritized interviews or channel checks to fill gaps.
- Provide access credentials or export files for secondary sources to the analyst team.
- Context Recap & Success Criteria
- Demonstrate a full, auditable bottom-up TAM build tied to buyer behavior.
- Reconcile bottom-up and top-down views and explain material deltas.
- Obtain stakeholder validation (or documented exceptions) on critical assumptions.
- Agree sensitivity ranges that will be presented to the board.
- Mark validated assumptions in the model and record who validated each one.
- Document objections and list required follow-up evidence or interviews.
- Update the model with any agreed adjustments and produce a versioned snapshot for the audit trail.
- Audit Trail Walkthrough
- Agree the complete auditable source package and how it will be organized for board/investor review.
- Finalize and approve the board-ready memo outline and slide map linking claims to evidence.
- Obtain executive sign-off on acceptance criteria and proceed-to-delivery decision.
- Confirm licensing and handover terms to avoid downstream disputes.
- CustomerNode to deliver versioned final model snapshot and a draft board-ready memo based on today's approvals.
- Client to sign the acceptance checklist and licensing/handover agreement or request final clarifications.
- Welcome & Objectives
- Produce a single-sentence current state that everyone agrees is accurate.
- Quantify the consequence of the current state with at least one numeric metric.
- Define a one-sentence future state (operational outcome) that the model must prove.
- Confirm required data, who will provide it, and list any access or redaction constraints.
- Client to deliver final dataset links, interview transcripts, and channel-check logs before the Live Walkthrough.
- CustomerNode team to draft the single-sentence current state, consequence, and future state for client confirmation.
- Assign an owner for acceptance criteria and sign-off for board-ready deliverables.
- Recap Alignment
- Each key assumption has a mapped buyer-behavior source or a clear plan to obtain it.
- Documented list of evidence gaps and priority interviews or data pulls to close them.
- Agreed sensitivity triggers that will be demonstrated in the live model.
- One‑Sentence Current State
- Board‑Ready Narrative & Slide Map
- Model Skeleton Overview
- Bottom‑Up Live Build
- Acceptance Criteria & Sign-Off Checklist
- Explicit Consequence
- Top‑Down Reconciliation
- Map Buyer Behaviors to Variables
- Evidence Drill-Down
- One‑Sentence Future State
- Evidence Inventory Review
- Licensing, Use Rights & Handover Terms
- Executive Validation & Decision
- Prework Checklist & Data Inventory
- Sensitivity Stress Tests
- Gap Analysis & Sensitivity Triggers
- Next Steps & Timeline to Final Delivery
- Agreement on Audit Trail Format
- Validation Checkpoints
- Logistics & Success Criteria
-
Solution Scope
Specify model approach, segmentation granularity, required primary interviews, data sources, deliverables, and timeline.
Scope Configuration
- Bottom-up TAM model by customer segment
- Top-down TAM reconciliation and benchmarking
- Serviceable Available Market segmentation model
- Serviceable Obtainable Market capture and share model
- Conduct 30+ buyer interviews with transcripts
- Channel and route-to-market revenue mapping
- Willingness-to-pay and price elasticity study
- Competitor revenue and market-share build-up
- Geographic market build-up to city/state/country
- Segment-level growth forecasts with CAGR
- Sensitivity and scenario outputs with ranges
- Audit-ready Excel model with sources and assumptions
- Buyer spend mapping by use-case and frequency
Scope Questions
Bottom-up TAM model by customer segment
- Which customer segments should be included in the bottom-up build?
- What minimum segmentation granularity do you require for the bottom-up model?
- What source data do you already have to populate counts (CRM lists, business registries, supplier data)?
- Which output metrics do you need from the bottom-up model?
- What time horizon should the bottom-up model cover?
- What level of sensitivity and confidence reporting do you require for bottom-up estimates?
Top-down TAM reconciliation and benchmarking
- Which top-down benchmark sources should we prioritize for reconciliation?
- Do you require a documented reconciliation that explains variance between top-down and bottom-up estimates?
- Are there specific peer companies or comparables you want used for benchmarking?
- What geographic scope should top-down benchmarking cover?
- Should benchmarking include per-customer revenue or pricing benchmarks to validate ARPU assumptions?
- Do you want a narrative explanation of adjustments applied to top-down figures?
Serviceable Available Market segmentation model
- What criteria define your serviceable market (product fit, channel coverage, regulatory eligibility)?
- Which segmentation attributes are required (industry, company size, use-case, channel)?
- Do you require segment-level revenue forecasts and growth assumptions?
- What minimum sample size per segment do you consider acceptable for reliable segmentation?
- Are there regulatory, contractual, or operational constraints that exclude segments from being serviceable?
- Should segments be ranked/prioritized by strategic importance (e.g., ease of entry, margin potential)?
Serviceable Obtainable Market capture and share model
- Do you want a capture model that estimates achievable share by channel and competitor?
- What target timeframe should SOM capture scenarios cover?
- Do you have historical conversion, win-rate, or funnel metrics to calibrate capture assumptions?
- Should the SOM model include GTM investment and ramp assumptions required to reach target share?
- Which competitor-displacement or market-entry scenarios should be modeled (price-led, feature-led, channel expansion)?
- Do you require sensitivity testing on capture assumptions and timelines?
Conduct 30+ buyer interviews with transcripts
- Do you require a minimum of 30 buyer interviews or is a different sample size acceptable?
- Which buyer types should we recruit (economic buyer, user, influencer, procurement, channel partner)?
- Do you require verbatim transcripts and original audio/video files delivered?
- Are interviews required in specific languages or geographies?
- Do you have existing contacts or warm intros that should be prioritized during recruiting?
- What confidentiality, non-disclosure, or recording restrictions must interviewers follow?
Channel and route-to-market revenue mapping
- Which channels should be modeled for revenue contribution (direct, distributors, resellers, marketplace, partners)?
- Do you require revenue split mapping by channel and sub-channel?
- Should the map include channel economics (margins, fees, commissions, uplift)?
- Are there channel-specific constraints (exclusive partners, limited distribution, regulatory limits) we should consider?
- Do you have channel performance metrics (ASP, average deal size, sales cycle) to calibrate revenue mapping?
- Do you want recommendations for channel prioritization and resource allocation?
Willingness-to-pay and price elasticity study
- Do you want quantitative willingness-to-pay estimates by segment or qualitative directional insights?
- Which pricing tests should we run (price-sensitivity questions, conjoint analysis, Van Westendorp)?
- What pricing units are relevant (per user/month, per transaction, per device, one-time license)?
- Do you have target price points or revenue per user that you want validated?
- Should elasticity outputs feed directly into revenue scenarios and sensitivity ranges?
- Do you require segmentation of WTP by industry, company size, or buyer persona?
Competitor revenue and market-share build-up
- Which competitors and peer sets should be included in the revenue build-up?
- Which methods should we use to estimate competitor revenue (public filings, channel checks, scraping, datasets)?
- Do you require competitor customer counts, ARPU, churn and feature mapping in the build-up?
- Are approximate revenue ranges for private competitors acceptable where precise numbers are unavailable?
- Do you want confidence notes and source-level disclosures for each competitor estimate?
- Should competitor positioning (price, features, channels) be mapped to explain share dynamics?
Geographic market build-up to city/state/country
- What geographic levels must the model support?
- Which countries, states or cities are highest priority for the build-up?
- Do you have local/regional data sources we should use or should we source secondary data?
- Should geographic build-ups account for local regulatory, licensing or tax differences?
- Do you require mapping of addressable customers by city/postal code for go-to-market planning?
- Is currency conversion, local pricing differentiation or PPP adjustments required?
Segment-level growth forecasts with CAGR
- What forecast horizon do you require for CAGR calculations?
- Do you prefer historical-data-driven CAGRs, analyst-led scenario CAGRs, or both?
- Should growth drivers be decomposed (penetration, frequency, replacement, pricing)?
- Are there macro or industry projections you want applied to segment forecasts?
- Do you require low/best/high ranges or probabilistic intervals for CAGRs?
- Should forecasts incorporate seasonality or cyclical effects at the segment level?
-
Research Execution
Operationalize primary and secondary research, sampling, and data validation to produce auditable market models.
-
Research Plan
Lock methodology, interview guides, sample targets (including minimum buyer interviews), secondary sources, and schedule.
Research Plan
Quick Setup: Who Are We Really Helping?
- Tell us your role and the immediate trigger that put this TAM on the board agenda (one sentence)
- What is the date of the board/investor deadline we must hit?
- Which outcome matters most to your leadership at that meeting?
- Who on the leadership or deal team will be the primary reviewer (name and role) and who has final sign-off?
- How nervous are you that the TAM will be challenged and why?
Why This Market, and Why Now?
- If the TAM number presented at the board is later proven overstated, what is the worst organizational consequence you fear?
- What growth or market share thresholds does the investment thesis require (e.g., >15% CAGR, $X revenue by year Y)?
- What prior market estimates or internal models are you trying to replace or defend, and what specifically didn’t work about them?
- Which competing narratives about this market exist internally or among investors that we should know up front?
- How precise does the board expect the headline TAM to be (e.g., rounded to nearest $10M, $100M, or percent range)?
Who Can You Actually Reach?
- Which target segments in your current plan are realistic addressable customers versus aspirational prospects?
- Are there legal, regulatory, or channel constraints that would prevent serving parts of the nominal market?
- Which geographies should be included, excluded, or treated separately (list and why)?
- What segmentation granularity do you actually need: simple (few buckets), industry-vertical focused, or micro-segmentation by buyer persona?
- Which assumptions do you consider off-limits for inclusion in the TAM (i.e., disallowed assumptions we must avoid)?
How Will This Stand Up to Scrutiny?
- What would feel like an unacceptable answer after investors or the board probe our methodology?
- Which of these deliverables must be board-ready at sign-off?
- How transparent must the model be (e.g., share raw interview notes vs. redacted summaries)?
- Do you require legal/licensing terms or IP clauses for the deliverables (e.g., limited-use license, confidentiality addendum)?
- What acceptance criteria will you use to sign off on the final work (be specific: metrics, formats, approvals)?
Primary Research: Who We Talk To And How
- If you had to prioritize three buyer profiles that would most shatter or validate your assumptions, which would they be?
- What is the minimum number of buyer interviews you will accept for a defensible bottom-up model?
- Can you and your team provide warm intros to target buyers or channel partners? If so, how many contacts can you introduce?
- What incentives (if any) are acceptable for buyer participation?
- Are there confidentiality or deal-sensitivity constraints that should shape interview scripts or attribution?
- What interview formats do you prefer (phone, video, in-person, survey) and any must-have questions we should include?
Secondary Sources & Data Confidence
- Which secondary data sources do you already trust or own that we should prioritize?
- Is there any dataset you are unwilling to rely on or pay for?
- Where do you believe our biggest secondary-data gaps will be (units, pricing, buyer intent, channel share)?
- How important is triangulation across multiple sources vs. a single authoritative source?
- Are you prepared to purchase proprietary datasets if they materially improve confidence?
Timeline, Milestones, and What We’ll Do When Things Slip
- If the TAM is delayed past your deadline, what is the single organizational risk you worry about most?
- Which milestone cadence works best for your team during research (weekly check-ins, biweekly deep reviews, ad-hoc)?
- Who must be involved in mid-project checkpoints (names/roles), and who is optional?
- What is an acceptable contingency plan if buyer response rates are low (extend timeline, increase incentives, broaden sample)?
- How fast do you expect draft findings after data collection closes?
What Would Make This Work a Win — or a Nightmare?
- What single finding from this research would cause you to pause or cancel the initiative, and why?
- What would a board-ready package need to include to feel unassailable to you?
- Which tone and level of certainty do you prefer in final recommendations (conservative, optimistic, ranges with scenarios)?
- After delivery, what handover support would make you comfortable running with the outputs (model explanation session, one-week office hours, co-presenting to board)?
- How would you like us to flag residual risks or unanswered questions in the final deliverable?
-
Field Research & Data Collection
Schedule and execute buyer interviews, channel checks, and secondary data pulls while tracking response rates and data gaps.
-
Model Build & Draft Findings
Translate collected data into bottom-up and top-down models, produce sensitivity ranges, and prepare draft deliverables for review.
Draft Reviews
- Model Build Kickoff (Internal)
- Draft Model Walkthrough (Client Review)
- Assumptions & Sensitivity Workshop (Collaborative)
- Draft Deliverables Review & Final Edits (Client Decision Meeting)
- Internal Finalization & QC Handoff
- Ensure the client understands the audit trail and can defend the TAM under board/investor scrutiny.
- Ensure stakeholders validate the one-sentence current state and the consequence framing.
- Secure explicit approval or redlines on the major model assumptions and sensitivity ranges.
- Identify prioritized evidence tasks required to move the drafts to board-ready status.
- Client to mark any disputed assumptions and provide any internal data that can resolve gaps.
- Analytics team to update the bottom-up and top-down models based on client feedback and produce scenario outputs.
- Prepare a one-page evidence map linking every critical assumption to source material and interview quotes.
- Recap Outstanding / Disputed Assumptions
- Agree the top-impact assumptions and lock the numerical sensitivity ranges that will appear in the board memo.
- Ensure every agreed assumption has an owner and a path to validation (evidence or acceptance criteria).
- Produce a decision log and update the model scenarios for final drafting.
- Update models with the agreed sensitivity ranges and generate scenario outputs for inclusion in the memo.
- Conduct targeted follow-up interviews or data pulls for the top 3 disputed assumptions.
- Prepare a formal decision log entry for each assumption to include in the audit appendix.
- Opening: One-sentence Future State
- Obtain client confirmation that draft deliverables meet the defined future-state proof and acceptance criteria.
- Agree the final edits, publishing timeline, and sign-off / licensing steps for delivery.
- Introductions & Objectives
- Incorporate agreed final edits into the memo and model, and produce the board-ready deliverable package.
- Prepare a short sign-off form outlining deliverables, acceptance criteria, and license terms for client signature.
- Deliver a version-controlled zip with models, source documentation, interview notes, and the audit appendix.
- QC Checklist Review
- Confirm the deliverable package is auditable, internally consistent, and meets the board-ready acceptance criteria.
- Finalize packaging and access controls to prevent post-delivery version drift and ensure clear ownership.
- Schedule and prepare materials for the Mutual Commit meeting with the client.
- Produce the final deliverable package (models, memo, audit appendix) and lock version in repository.
- Create a README that maps every critical assumption to its source and decision log entry.
- Circulate Mutual Commit slide and acceptance checklist to client and internal stakeholders ahead of the sign-off meeting.
- Create a single, explicit current-state sentence and a documented list of evidence supporting it.
- Establish which assumptions materially affect the TAM and assign owners for each model component.
- Agree internal timeline and required outputs for the Draft Model Review with the client.
- Produce a one-page data inventory mapping inputs to model fields and flag gaps.
- Build initial bottom-up model shell with placeholders for missing inputs.
- Draft the one-sentence Current State and Future State statements for client review.
- Schedule the Draft Model Walkthrough with the client and circulate pre-read materials.
- Opening: Current State Recap (one-sentence)
- Current State Summary (one-sentence)
- Prioritize by Impact
- Consequence Summary
- Audit Trail Verification
- Board-Ready TAM Memo Walkthrough
- Bottom-up Model Walkthrough
- Model & Appendix Review
- Sensitivity & Scenario Consistency Check
- Consequence Framing
- Live Scenario Modeling
- Future State & Deliverable Definition
- Define Acceptance Criteria & Ranges
- Interview Summaries & Representative Quotes
- Top-down Reconciliation & Triangulation
- Deliverable Packaging & Access Controls
- Assign Evidence Tasks & Deadlines
- Modeling Approach & Division of Work
- Sensitivity Ranges & Key Levers
- Licensing, Use Cases & Distribution Constraints
- Prepare Mutual Commit Materials & Timeline
- Data Gaps & Mitigation Plan
- Document Decisions
- Audit Trail & Evidence Mapping
- Final Feedback, Acceptance Criteria Check, & Sign-off Plan
-
-
Mutual Commit
Agree final deliverables, acceptance criteria, licensing, and sign-off for board-ready materials and investor scrutiny.
Agreement Modules
- Statement of Work (SOW)
- Master Services Agreement (MSA)
- Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA)
- Pricing & Payment Schedule
- Acceptance Criteria & Sign-Off
- Data Processing & Privacy Agreement (DPA)
- Research Participant Consent & Release
- Intellectual Property & Licensing
- Source Data Access & Audit Rights
- Change Order & Scope Management
- Termination & Refund Policy
- Board-Ready Deliverable License & Distribution
- Escrow & Post-Engagement Access
-
Final Delivery & Handover
Deliver final models, source documentation, interview summaries, and a board-ready TAM memo with an auditable build-up.
-
Success
Review outcomes against acceptance criteria, capture lessons, and maintain a shared channel for issues and future updates.
Success Reviews
- Final Acceptance & Sign-off Review
- Lessons Learned Retrospective
- Handover: Support & Maintenance Channel Setup
- Stakeholder Update: Executive Brief & Board-Ready Materials
- Ongoing Monitoring & Sensitivity Recalibration
Issues & Enhancements
- Agree distribution, approval steps, and timing for board/investor circulation.
- Support Model Overview
- Create an accessible, shared channel for issues and updates with defined access and triage rules.
- Agree SLAs and escalation paths so responses are predictable and auditable.
- Ensure artifacts are stored in a single source of truth with clear versioning and permissions.
- Provision the agreed shared channel and invite the complete roster of owners and stakeholders.
- Publish the triage workflow, SLA table, and escalation contacts in the channel's pinned docs.
- Populate the knowledge base with final models, source docs, and interview summaries and confirm access.
- Executive Summary Review
- Finalize board-ready memo and slide deck that transparently maps to the TAM build-up.
- Equip spokespeople with evidence-based responses to anticipated scrutiny.
- Welcome & Objectives
- Produce the final board memo and slide deck incorporating agreed edits and risk language.
- Create a one-page Q&A cheat sheet linking each anticipated question to source evidence and slide references.
- Schedule a dry-run rehearsal with spokespeople prior to board distribution.
- Review Key Acceptance Metrics
- Create a concrete monitoring plan with data sources, indicators, and owners to detect material changes.
- Define clear triggers and a repeatable process for sensitivity recalculation and model updates.
- Schedule the first review and confirm dashboard/reporting responsibilities.
- Build the monitoring dashboard (or configure reports) with agreed indicators and share access.
- Document trigger thresholds and the step-by-step update process including approval gates.
- Plan the pilot monitoring window and calendar the first recalibration checkpoint.
- Obtain formal acceptance or a time‑boxed remediation plan for any exceptions.
- Ensure all delivered artifacts are auditable and map back to documented sources and assumptions.
- Agree concrete next steps, owners, and dates for any outstanding items.
- Prepare and circulate a Sign-off Certificate reflecting accepted deliverables and any conditional items.
- Document exceptions with owners, remediation actions, and deadlines in the project tracker.
- Deliver final licensed artifacts to legal/archiving once sign-off is received.
- Set the Stage
- Generate a prioritized list of process and product improvements tied to measurable impact.
- Assign owners and due dates to improvement actions to ensure closure before the next engagement.
- Capture customer feedback to refine client-facing templates and pre-engagement scoping questions.
- Produce a concise Lessons Learned report summarizing findings, actions, and owners.
- Update the Journey Template and scoping checklist with agreed changes (e.g., minimum interview counts, data gating rules).
- Schedule follow-up checkpoint to review progress on high-priority improvements in 6 weeks.
- Recap of Acceptance Criteria
- Define Monitoring Indicators & Sources
- Select & Provision Shared Channel
- What Went Well
- Evidence & Risk Callouts
- Deliverables Walkthrough
- What Could Be Improved
- Trigger Thresholds & Update Rules
- Q&A & Tough Questions Prep
- Issue Triage Workflow
- Dashboard & Reporting Design
- Evidence & Audit Trail Review
- Escalation Path & Contacts
- Root Cause & Impact Discussion
- Slides & Distribution Plan
- Action Backlog & Owners
- Knowledge Base & Artifact Access
- Pilot Period & Next Review
- Open Issues & Exceptions
- Communication Cadence
- Sign-off & Next Steps